Broadcom’s AI Success Won’t All Come at Nvidia’s Expense


作为最新的万亿美元市值芯片公司，博通的AI业务增强潜力强劲，但领头羊英伟达的光芒不会因此而黯淡。


英伟达CEO黄仁勋和博通CEO陈福阳

又一家市值突破1万亿美元的AI芯片公司诞生了，但领头羊英伟达(Nvidia)的光芒不会因此而黯淡。 6park.com
There’s a new trillion-dollar AI chip maker in town. The old one is still going to do just fine.  6park.com
   
博通(Broadcom)在上周的第四财季业绩报告中发布了对其AI业务的长期预测，提振了股价，将该公司的市值推高至1万亿美元以上。这似乎对英伟达产生了反作用力：过去两个交易日，英伟达股价下跌了约4%，而同期博通的股价飙升了38%。 6park.com
Broadcom’s fiscal fourth-quarter report last week included a long-term forecast for its artificial-intelligence business that has lighted up its stock price and pushed the company’s market capitalization past $1 trillion. It also appears to have done the opposite for Nvidia: The AI chip titan’s stock has shed about 4% over the past two days while Broadcom’s has surged by 38% in that time.  6park.com
   
两家公司市值之间的差距仍然很大。周一收盘时，英伟达的市值约为3.3万亿美元，相比之下博通约为1.2万亿美元。但对于博通而言这已经是罕见的高度，经过最近这一轮飙升，该公司基于未来四个季度预期收益的市盈率已经超过38倍。FactSet的数据显示，这是博通市盈率的最高纪录，已经达到三年平均水平的两倍。这也是自2016年初原来的博通与安华高(Avago)合并、打造出如今的博通以来，其市盈率首次超过英伟达。截至周一收盘，英伟达的预期市盈率在31倍左右。 6park.com
The gap is still wide. Nvidia closed trading Monday at a market capitalization of around $3.3 trillion compared with Broadcom’s roughly $1.2 trillion. But Broadcom is still breathing some rarefied air as the recent surge has boosted the chip maker’s stock price to more than 38 times projected earnings for the next four quarters. That is the highest multiple the stock has ever commanded and double its three-year average, according to data from FactSet. It is also the first time Broadcom has fetched a premium to Nvidia since the former’s merger with Avago in early 2016 that effectively created the company in its current form. Nvidia’s shares closed Monday around 31 times forward earnings.  6park.com
   
投资者有充分的理由对博通的潜力满怀期待。多元化的芯片业务使得该公司有望在火爆的AI市场多点开花。博通是网络处理器领域的顶级供应商，这类处理器用于管理数据中心组件之间的连接，比如英伟达生产的芯片集群。博通还是Alphabet旗下谷歌(Google)和Meta Platforms等大型科技公司的重要合作伙伴，这些公司正在为自家数据中心设计自己的AI芯片。 6park.com
There are good reasons for investors to get excited about Broadcom’s potential. The company’s diverse chip business gives it a few areas of exposure to the hot AI market. Broadcom is a top supplier of networking processors that manage connections between data-center components, such as the chip clusters Nvidia makes. It is also a key partner to large tech companies such as Alphabet’s Google and Meta Platforms that are designing their own artificial-intelligence chips for their data centers.  6park.com
  
定制AI芯片（也称为ASIC)可以执行英伟达产品所能执行的一些AI工作负载。因此，上周由博通素来保守的首席执行官陈福阳(Hock Tan)发布的强劲预测，对英伟达自身增长潜力来说可能不是一个好兆头。在与分析师的财报电话会议上，陈福阳表示，预计博通三家最大的科技公司客户在截至2027年10月的财年中，将在博通涉足的两个AI芯片市场ASIC芯片和网络组件上花费600亿至900亿美元。 6park.com
Custom AI chips, also called ASICs, can perform some of the same AI workloads as Nvidia’s offerings. Thus, Broadcom’s strong projection last week from typically conservative Chief Executive Officer Hock Tan could be seen as a worrisome sign for Nvidia’s own growth potential. During the company’s earnings call with analysts, Tan said Broadcom’s three largest big-tech customers are expected to spend between $60 billion and $90 billion in the fiscal year ending October 2027 on ASIC chips and networking components, the two AI chip markets Broadcom serves.  6park.com
   
博通没有指望全部拿下这些业务；陈福阳称这些数字是该公司的“可服务市场”。但这些言论仍被视为对博通AI业务强劲增长的预测，该公司刚刚结束的财年AI业务收入为122亿美元。 6park.com
Broadcom doesn’t expect to land all that business; Tan described the figures as the company’s “serviceable addressable market,” or SAM. But the comments were still seen as a projection for strong growth from the $12.2 billion in AI revenue Broadcom reported for the just-ended fiscal year.  6park.com
  
“假设博通能够实现哪怕是上述可服务市场预期的低端，我们预计到2027日历年，该公司每股收益将达到12美元以上，”Jefferies的Blayne Curtis写道。 6park.com
“Assuming Broadcom can achieve even the low end of the SAM range, we see a pathway to $12+ in EPS by CY27,” wrote Blayne Curtis of Jefferies.  6park.com
   
博通上一财年调整后每股收益为4.87美元。规模相对较小、在亚马逊(Amazon)等大型科技公司所用定制化ASIC芯片领域与博通竞争的Marvell Technology，也正经历爆炸式增长。Marvell的总收入在截至2026年1月的财年料将大增40%。 6park.com
Broadcom reported $4.87 in adjusted per-share earnings for its latest fiscal year. Marvell Technology, Broadcom’s smaller rival in custom ASIC chips for big tech companies such as Amazon, also is enjoying explosive growth. Marvell’s total revenue is expected to surge 40% for its fiscal year ending in January 2026.  6park.com
   
但此类自研芯片并不能完全抵消对在市场上处于领导地位的英伟达芯片的需求。值得注意的是，在芯片领域走得最远的两家科技巨头谷歌(Google)和亚马逊也经常宣扬与手握AI大权的英伟达的关系。 6park.com
But such in-house chips don’t fully offset the need for Nvidia’s market-leading silicon. Notably, the two tech giants furthest along in their chip efforts, Google and Amazon, both also frequently tout their relationship with the AI kingmaker.  6park.com
   
“我们与英伟达有着良好的合作关系，”谷歌首席执行官桑达·皮采(Sundar Pichai)在该公司最近的财报电话会议上表示。 6park.com
“We have a wonderful partnership with Nvidia,” Google CEO Sundar Pichai said on the company’s latest earnings call.  6park.com
   
“这不是一场零和游戏，”Bernstein的分析师Stacy Rasgon接受采访时称。拥有相关资源的大型科技公司，可以设计出比外部供应商的芯片能更高效地运行某些高度特异性工作负载的芯片。Rasgon说“但这并非没有代价”，他说此类芯片缺乏灵活性。 6park.com
“It’s not a zero-sum game,” said analyst Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein in an interview. Big tech companies with the resources can design chips to run certain highly specific workloads more efficiently than chips from outside providers. “But there’s no free lunch,” Rasgon said, adding that such chips aren’t flexible. 6park.com
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他还指出，这些大型科技公司云服务的主要客户，并不希望被锁定在单一的专有计算来源。“企业客户都希望拥有灵活性，他们都在使用CUDA，”他说。CUDA指的是英伟达的大型AI软件编码库，对于该公司深厚的竞争护城河至关重要。 6park.com
He also noted that major customers of the cloud services those big tech companies provide don’t want to get locked into a single, proprietary computing source. “Enterprise customers all want flexibility, and they’re all writing on CUDA,” he said, referring to Nvidia’s large AI software coding library that is key to the company’s deep competitive moat.  6park.com
   
因此，市场仍然对英伟达和博通寄予厚望。覆盖这两只股票的多数分析师都将两者的评级定为买入，尽管博通的股价已超过了多数经纪商的目标价。博通的AI业务规模也仍然远远不及英伟达，英伟达在截至10月份的12个月里取得了980亿美元的数据中心收入。 6park.com
Hence, the market still expects big things from both Nvidia and Broadcom. Most analysts who cover the duo rate both stocks as a buy, even as Broadcom’s share price has eclipsed most brokers’ price targets. Broadcom’s AI business is also still a fraction of Nvidia’s, which reported $98 billion in data-center revenue for the 12-month period ended October. 6park.com
  
据Visible Alpha汇编的平均预期，华尔街预计，未来两年英伟达的数据中心收入将增长一倍以上，届时这仍将是博通预期AI收入的10倍左右。博通的下一个万亿美元可能不会像第一个那样轻松拿下。 6park.com
Wall Street expects Nvidia’s data-center revenue to more than double in the next two years, which will still be about 10 times Broadcom’s projected AI revenue at the same point, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha. Broadcom’s next trillion dollars may not come as easily as the first.