FAO predicts 2011 20% world food price inflation

The UK Guardian yesterday:

“The UN today warned that food prices could rise by 10%-20% next year after poor harvests and an expected rundown of global reserves. More than 70 African and Asian countries will be the worst hit, said the Food and Agricultural Organisation in its monthly report.

In its gloomiest forecast since the 2007/08 food crisis, which saw food riots in more than 25 countries and 100 million extra hungry people, the report's authors urged states to prepare for hardship.”

“…food riots in more than 25 countries and 100 million extra hungry people…”

That was 2007/8, how severe will 2011 (and beyond) be?
Check what a non-UN world food analyst says about wheat (the 20% wheat flour price increase I noticed locally)
‘"2011 will not be a good harvest. The condition of winter wheat crops is not good. Neither the US nor Russia are expecting good harvests," said Lester Brown, founder of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute.’

Buy food and stockpile now, even if you have to use credit. Food won’t get any cheaper in the short or medium term. Stockpiling food and growing food (including raising livestock) are two of the best ways to increase food security.

We have been warned.

Even more food price increases

Three months ago, I paid $50 per 10kg bag of wheat flour. That same bag cost $60 today. An increase of 20%! Or a basic commodity that all Trinis use, regularly (if not daily).

Chicken prices are up at one of the biggest producers. An increase varying between 3-5%. Prepare for even more food inflation in the short and medium term.


On a positive note, I bought more food grade lidded buckets. So more food storage. The garden continues to produce fresh tasty healthy food, with enough to share in the bounty. Growing new soil is really fun, rewarding and satisfying.

Civil unrest in Madagascar

Police in Madagascar today fired on unarmed, peaceful protestors, killing at least 25 and injuring over 80. The world’s fourth largest island has experienced looting, arson, widespread protests in the last two weeks. Over 90% of the 10,000 recorded flora and fauna, are found nowhere else in the world. The country, with a population of over 20 million has a history of coups and counter coups. At first glance the situation appears quite complicated. See story here, and here.

Andrydago, a blogger and lawyer, posts about dramatic inflation that accompanies the unrest. All the prices of goods are increasing. “This is the case especially for rice, sugar, yoghurt, milk, butter, oil and gas.”

Preps

Bought hooks & screws that came in a handy compartmentalised container, similar to a pillbox. Also got some baby toothbrushes, a collapsible 5 litre water jug, a fuel funnel and a calculator.

Considering a bulk purchase of food in conjunction with other likeminded folks. Inflation, now at 15.4% will eat away at the purchasing power of our money, so it’s better to spend the money now, and get more tangibles now than hold on to it and buy less later.


SNEAKY GROCERY TACTIC

Discovered a sneaky tactic that a leading national grocery chain is using; selling a 9kg pack of parboiled rice, instead of the usual 10kg. Price is $112. It’s packaged exactly like the 10kg pack, and you have to look closely for the ‘9 KG’ sign. I went home to check, as I was sure I had bought a 10kg bag for $60 2 years ago. Yes, it was 10kg.

10kg bag = $60
9 kg bag = $112

Replaced the 10kg with the 9kg, and now I have less rice in my preps to feed my family in an emergency. Maybe a call to Charles James of JMH may be in order. Wonder what the minimum order is to get wholesale prices? Hmmmmm…


- Trini Funshooter

Prepared, preparing or not?

Came across two images that graphically illustrates the differences between those who prepare, and those who do not.

One noted local economist, Dr Dhanyshar Mahabir, has predicted “hard times ahead” for the Trinidad & Tobago. With rising double digit inflation, maybe we should spend our dollars on prepping, rather than holding it in bank accounts that pay 1% or 1.5% per annum. I’m eating rice this week that I paid $6/kg over 2 year ago. The same label sells it’s rice at $12.50/kg now. A 108% increase. If I had held on to the cash, instead of prepping, I would only be able to buy less than half the rice with the same money. I’ll continue to ‘invest’ in tangibles, so that my family will be insured against hunger, thirst, medical supply shortages and violent crime.
Every prep purchase is a premium on our family insurance (assurance) policy.

Prepare today. Survive tomorrow’s emergencies.

- Trini Funshooter

Chicken prices up, again

One of the largest chicken wholesalers in the country has raised their retail prices by 7.14 %. This was preceded by a 3.7 % increase two months ago.

- Trini Funshooter