Showing posts with label Swine Flu. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Swine Flu. Show all posts

Tuesday, 17 August 2010

Sky not falling. The real lessons of another failed scare story.

sky-not-falling Who can doubt the power of mythology to drive behaviour.  Sadly, the myths of ‘End Times,’ ‘Apocalypse’ and our “separation” from nature (part of the myth of our ejection from the Garden of Eden) have driven several dozen scare stories over the centuries—from the earth running out of sunlight in the third century to it running out of coal in 1860; from it running out of oil by 1990 to it running out of room by 2000; from ice ages to floods; from robins dying of mass slaughter in 1979 to Americans dying of mass starvation by 1980 to England failing to exist in the year 2000 to “the entire world” being under famine by 2010. We’ve heard it all. And it hasn’t happened.

Mythology can guide us.  If we’re not careful, it can also blind us.

This tendency to go moth-like to the flames of self-immolation doesn’t stop with individual humans but can suck in an entire culture. As I have previously shared, perhaps the single best example of that is provided by the ancient Hawaiians who, finding themselves in absolute paradise, set about inventing over 2,000 “kapus” or laws, transgressions of most of which were punishable by death. One minute, paradise, the next....

As you see, this idiocy isn’t confined to modern western man.  Take this dopy quote, for example:

_Quote You must know that the world has grown old, and does not remain in its former vigour. It bears witness to its own decline. The rainfall and the sun’s warmth are both diminishing; the metals are nearly exhausted; the husbandman is failing in the fields, the sailor on the seas, the soldier in the camp, honesty in the market, justice in the courts, concord in friendships, skill in the arts, discipline in morals. This is the sentence passed upon the world, that everything which has a beginning should perish, that things which have reached maturity should grow old, the strong weak, the great small, and that after weakness and shrinkage should come dissolution.

That quote comes not from recent times, but from third century Europe—and we’re still here and we’re still vigorous, and the human environment is now the best it’s ever been! But we’ve been scaring ourselves to death for centuries, literally centuries.

chicken-little-1 The latest “we’re-all-gonna-die” scare story widely embraced by those who can’t see past the myths was H1N1 Swine Flu, about which nearly everyone was all in a lather not so long ago.  Now that the World Health Organization have called off the “pandemic,” two Canadian epidemiologists make a sober assessment of one of the more unlikely scare stories of recent times to have pushed the hot button of mass hysteria.

There are important lessons to be learned here about many of the other apocalyptic scare stories—and people’s too-eager readiness to embrace them.

So read The real lessons of H1N1

Thursday, 27 August 2009

How to diagnose the flu

Common sense on the flu from a letter to the Daily Telegraph [hat tip Dr Shaun Holt]:

“When I was a student nurse back in the sensible Seventies, we were taught a simple diagnosis for those with influenza. If there is a $10 note on the floor and the patient can get out of bed to pick it up, then he does not have flu, simply a common cold.
Similarly, anyone collecting his own Tamiflu from the pharmacy should be sent away empty-handed.”

If only such common sense was still so common.

Thursday, 11 June 2009

Karma

How distressing to hear that a swine flu scare is doing the rounds of the New Zealand Qualifications Authority.

It couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch of bureaucrats. [Hat tip Maria W]

Tuesday, 5 May 2009

LIBERTARIAN SUS: The sky is falling. Or not.

Our regular correspondent Susan Ryder has fears, worries and concerns.

susanryder Just over a week ago we awoke to the news that the sky was falling. The latest cunning plan to decimate mankind had apparently unleashed itself in Mexico - which is as good a place as any, I suppose - and by God, it was only a matter of time before we were all doomed.

It seemed that the world’s media had been collectively possessed. To hell with droning on about the global credit crisis or their ongoing love affair with Barack Obama. Bring on the pandemic!

Within a matter of hours, we were bombarded with stories of Mexicans in crowded hospitals dying by the score of something called “Swine Flu.” Media fever intensified alongside the virus itself, with cases being reported in the United States and Canada. But the real breakthrough occurred when a handful of Auckland high school students started sneezing after a school trip to Mexico. It was the media equivalent of winning Powerball.

Houston, we have lift-off! Aaaachoo!!

What happened after that was just surreal. Legions of reporters camped outside the homes of the afflicted Rangitoto College students, providing “updates” every five minutes. Public health bigwigs fell over themselves to line up next to Health Minister Tony Ryall, despite nobody seeming to know much about anything, least of all the virus. Ryall was guaranteed to mention that the government remained “cautious” and “concerned” at least twice during every interview. Words like if, might, could, perhaps, potentially and possible were tossed around with gay abandon, while the stocks of Tamiflu, unneeded since SARS failed to live up to its promise of horror, were sailing out of pharmacies. The survivalists and oddbods who remain on full alert for the NEXT BIG THING scrambled to unearth supplies of trusty face-masks unused from the Bird Flu scare, and batteries and Weetbix from Y2K.

You can’t be too careful.

It was all going beautifully for the local media, except for a few inconvenient facts. First, the students looked a picture of health as they recovered quickly to smile and wave behind their windows for the cameras (albeit visibly bored with too many games of Monopoly). Second, the fatalities attributed to the virus stubbornly remained confined within the Mexican borders. And, third, try as they might, no amount of media time could improve the presentation skills of Tony Ryall and the health bureaucrats.

Then a stroke of luck occurred – a Swine Flu death in the United States. Holy Worldwide Disaster, Batman, we’ve gone international at last!  There’s mileage in this story, dammit, even if we have to mate with Pinky and Perky to get it!

The World Health Organisation meanwhile was presenting a slightly less apocalyptic scenario. They quietly changed the name, from Swine Flu to something less headline friendly.  They confirmed, as of yesterday, there were 985 laboratory-confirmed human cases of H1N1 in 20 countries, of which Mexico accounts for 590 alone, with 25 deaths. Of the remaining 19 countries, ten have one laboratory-confirmed case; two have two; Israel has three; New Zealand, four; and Germany, eight. Those in double figures are the UK with 15; Spain, 40; Canada, 85 and the US with 226. The sole US fatality was reported to be a Mexican toddler.

On the subject of pandemics, the WHO also states that the infamous Spanish Flu of 1918-19 claimed more than 40 million lives. Current epidemiological models, they say, project a “pandemic” as something resulting in the loss of two to seven million lives. The Swine Flu, by comparison, has a bit of work to do.

More facts: Did anybody bother to point out that Mexico is a country of nearly 120 million of which nearly 20 million live in Greater Mexico City alone? That many of its people live in poverty?

That ordinary influenza that has never even seen a pig routinely claims thousands of lives every year in many first-world countries?

Or that in the cold winter of 1975 there was a flu epidemic in this country? Many high schools reported high absentee levels due to the illness. There was talk of my own school closing down temporarily when the absentee figure crept near the 40% mark, but after the danger period of about a fortnight, everyone recovered and that was that with no fuss.

Instead we have the likes of the 32 year old who contacted Newstalk ZB on Sunday morning to say that she was terrified of getting the virus – in spite of never having left Auckland this year or associating with anybody who has recently been overseas. Consumers who stopped eating pork and pork products in spite of the WHO’s assurance that there is no risk of H1N1 infection from consumption of such meats. And an ever-increasing number of fatalities attributed to the virus which turn out to have been greatly exaggerated. Chalk it all up to that unholy media trinity of fears, worries and concerns, and to a much anticipated horseman of apocalypse that steadfastly refuses to arrive.

There is one bonus, however. At least it’s seen Tony Veitch vanish from the front pages. And it’s given Roche Pharmaceuticals and their shareholders something to smile about, too.

* * Read Susan Ryder’s column every Tuesday here at NOT PC * *

Thursday, 30 April 2009

NOT PJ: Avian Swine Flew

This week Bernard Darnton has a headache and feels nauseous. . .

Load up the Land Rover with the 12-gauge and three months worth of baked beans. Bird flu is here. No – mad pig disease. Wait – the Y2K09 bug.

One thing there has been a serious outbreak of is word games. The U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack is upset that this week’s fashionable worry has been called “swine flu” because of the possible effect on pork sales. Israeli Deputy Health Minister has suggested “Mexican flu” because he finds the reference to pigs offensive. The Mexican ambassador to Israeli got all huffy because he found the reference to Mexicans offensive. If this really is a serious health threat it’s good to see that world’s governments are suitably focused.

pigfluHere in New Zealand, all those people who’ve toiled away for years on pandemic preparedness plans are suddenly feeling important and putting on reflective jackets and hanging out in command centres with giant plasma screens, presumably watching CNN on the big plasmas to find out what happens next.

The death toll in Mexico, the “epicenter” of the “pandemic” is claimed to be 160. The population of Mexico City is 28 million. If a disease of the same virulence swept through a city the size of Christchurch the death toll would be two. Surely sad for the families of those two but I wouldn’t go as far as crossing live to a rain-soaked reporter for an exclusive update.

I’m no virologist, or biologist, or anything-else-ologist for that matter. I don’t even have a beard. I’ll leave it to the lab-coated ones to work out what’s actually going on. But my biggest worry isn’t that some previously unknown disease is coming to wipe us out; it’s that a previously well-known parasite will grow and spread because of this.

In its most virulent form this parasite strikes millions of people dead in short periods. In its modern form in the first world it suffocates and strangles. And there’s nothing it likes more than a crisis.

In his thriller State of Fear author Michael Crichton suggested that it wasn’t the emergence of a military-industrial complex that we should worry about but the emergence of a media-political complex.

His story was far-fetched but the point is valid. At no time in history have we been richer or healthier than we are now but we still worry just as much. We worry about aircraft – noise from aircraft, exhaust gases from aircraft, people with stubble and olive skin on aircraft, people sneezing on aircraft – and there’s a whole lot of other stuff starting the letters B through Z to worry about as well.

The media dishes out fear because it captivates audiences. Those audiences then demand that the government “does something” to address the fear.

The government has sweeping emergency powers that might not be out of place during a Black Death outbreak. The real problem is that the law is so vaguely worded that those same powers could be used during an outbreak of obesity, or anything else that some Sue Kedgley-type dreams up as a health risk.

I don’t feel the need to run out and buy a face mask but if anyone has the antidote to big government I’ll take it. If governments around the world don’t take advantage of avian/swine flu to increase their powers, pigs will fly.

* * Bernard Darnton writes every Thursday here at NOT PC * *

PS: Bernard Darnton, otherwise known as NOT PJ, will be in Auckland tonight seeing the guy who really is PJ, i.e., PJ O’Rourke’s gig at Sky City. If you’d like to catch up with us, Bernard and I and Annie Fox will be in the London Bar beforehand from about 5:30 on – and before that in the garden at The Castle. Maybe we’ll catch up with you?

PPS: And thanks to Crusader Rabbit for the cartoon.

Wednesday, 29 April 2009

Wine flu update

A correspondent writes in:

I had a dinner party last night, where I and other guests enjoyed copious alcohol. I awoke this morning not feeling well, with what could be described as flu-like symptoms; headache, nausea, chills, sore eyes etc.
    From the results of some initial testing, I have unfortunately tested positive for what experts are now calling Wine Flu. This debilitating condition is very serious—and it appears this is not an isolated case. Reports are flooding in from all around the neighbourhood of others diagnosed with Wine Flu.
To anyone that starts to exhibit the aforementioned tell-tale signs, experts are recommending a cup of tea and a bit of a lie down. However, should your condition worsen, you should immediately hire a DVD and take some Nurofen [Nurofen seems to be the only drug available that has been proven to help combat this unusual type of flu].  
    Others are reporting a McDonald’s Happy Meal can also help in some cases.
    Wine Flu does not need to be life threatening, and if treated early can be irradiated within a 24-48 hour period.  If not, then further application of the original liquid in similar quantities to the original dose has been shown to do the trick.

Tuesday, 28 April 2009

Swine flu update [updated]

STUFF: The Director of Public Health tonight announced that three of the Rangitoto College party have tested positive for swine flu H1N1. . .  Health officials are investigating 66 cases of possible swine flu [including the ten Rangitoto College patients]. . . The [other] 56 "suspected" cases are scattered nationwide. Patients have been given Tamiflu and are in home-based isolation, officials said.

UPDATEJack Wheeler has a few prophylactic measures you might like to think about to protect yourself from Swine Flu.  They look a little extreme unless you live in one of the seriously affected areas, like Wheeler does (see this Google map for the spread), but they’re something to keep in mind.

Monday, 27 April 2009

Swinish flu reporting

When he’s not blogging and catching buses, blogger Poneke has a day job as one of the country’s few remaining responsible journalists.  He writes this morning about the Swine Flu epidemic erupting in the MSM:

PANIC IN THE SKIES!! WE’RE ALL DOOMED!! PIGS FLY!!
    The swine flu scare is déjà vu all over again. The media internationally and in New Zealand is beating this up the same way it did the Y2K bug, SARS and Bird Flu. . .
    Swine flu is actually one of the mildest strains of flu and has spread fairly innocuously around the world a couple of times in my own lifetime. . .  
    New flu strains go round the world every year. Thousands of New Zealanders catch the virus annually without it becoming front page news. Some of them even die of it, especially the frail elderly.
    Folks, there is nothing to see here but a media and political beat-up. Time to move on.