This pandemic is a top-seven moment in NZ's history. Discuss. [Updated]

[UPDATE: For those trying to get down to seven key events, I'm conceding defeat for the moment. I have a list of eight Anchor Dates -- as I'm calling them -- which I've posted over at my Politically Incorrect History of NZ blog. Enjoy!]

You know, I've started writing a book. A book on New Zealand history. A book that describes New Zealand history from birth to today, telling the story through this place's most important explanatory moments.

The idea to tell the story that way is that our brain is only capable of holding so many particular facts in our head at one time as one "mental unit." Some suggest seven as the maximum number of facts at one time; that we can integrate and hold in our minds seven discrete facts as one mental unit, but after this (for most of us) the integration becomes more difficult if not impossible.

This is one reason that housing set-ups -- flats, co-housing, apartment complexes -- generally work well with up to seven people or seven units, which means everyone knows each other, but very badly thereafter. Above this number, the "mental unit" of "us" as begins breaking down into smaller clusters of "us" and "them."

Seven is the magic number then. Which is why I've been working on seven major facts by which to explain the history of this place. Seven events that in themselves are so causal -- in that they either caused so much in turn, or were caused by a whole stream of ideas and events -- that just telling the story of these seven events (and what they caused and were caused by) would be sufficient to tell the story of this place in a way that the reader can then hold out history as a single mental unit.

The technique has been called "History Through Induction." Allowing the reader to induce for themselves the nature of the place or period discussed. And so, based on this idea, I've been assiduously researching and investigating our own place's past so I can narrow all the stories down to telling all about the seven most important, most causal, events.

And I was nearly there! At the start of this week, I was down to just ten.

Now I'm up to eleven!

I'm up to eleven, because we now have a new event to add to the list: this pandemic -- our reaction to it, what caused the virus and our own reaction(s) to it (or lack thereof), and what might happen next to us.

Like WWI, the Spanish Flu, the Great Depression, WWII, the Fall of the Berlin Wall and 9/11, this pandemic is one of this century's world-historic events. Not all of those other events make my top seven. Not even my top ten.

But I think this pandemic, and our reaction to it, probably does.

What do you think?

Would this pandemic makeyour own list of the top-seven events in New Zealand history?

And what would be your other six?

If you tell me yours, I'll tell you mine...
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QotD: On haranguing dissenters [updated]

"This interview [below] between Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson and UK Channel 4 interviewer Cathy Newman] is truly a work of art, and while one could probably write a treatise analysing it, one important [point], which I blogged about recently, is the phenomenon of the conceptual versus the anti-conceptual mind...
...."Newman demonstrates [the] anti-conceptual mentality by refusing to grasp the method that Peterson follows. Essentially, she continually ignores or evades his reasoning, mindlessly attaching herself to one word or fragment of his statement which she then tangentially relates to some PC cliche... This is a recurring theme. Peterson tries to explain the causes of an observable fact before jumping to any conclusions or evaluating the morality of those causes, while she wishes to take the fact alone as prima facie evidence of her own preconceived judgment: 'There is a pay gap, therefore men are oppressing women.' ...
...."This anti-conceptual method is endemic to the left and accounts for most of their own political positions.... Why is this? To the left, seeking causes is irrelevant because causes are preordained... These days, that means people are determined by their class, gender, and ethnicity... Consequently, the leftist mind is stunted at birth as it were, leaving its zombie disciples in a position not to have a reasoned discussion nor to debate in the pursuit of truth (causes), but only to harangue and attack dissenters."
~ from the Rational Capitalist's post: "Important 'Takeaway' from the Peterson Interview: The Anti-Conceptual Left"

UPDATE:

History teacher Scott Powell agrees that the problem here is conceptual.

For what it's worth, and this is for all you educators and activists out there mainly: the real significance of this interview is that it shows how difficult it is for someone who operates at a higher level of abstraction to talk to someone who refuses to, and why the real battle for freedom is in education.
....The interviewer insists on reframing all issues at a lower level of abstraction (to "simplify," to reduce to soundbites--by stripping away key elements of the truth) and Peterson keeps trying to elevate the discussion to the plain on which it belongs by maintaining the full context. Because modern education has failed so utterly, he can't do it. He stays patient and benevolent throughout, and he does "overpower" her intellectually in the end, especially during that one moment where the truth breaks through.
....But in a perfectly tragic twist befitting our modern world, Peterson's own uneducated "supporters" then attacked her on-line, which fundamentally undercut the intellectual effort he undertook.
....To make the world a better place requires nothing less than increasing the level of abstraction of the culture. Nothing less.

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Quote of the Day: Democracy v populism

 

“’Populism’ is the new anti-concept. When you get what you want, you call it ‘democracy.’ When you don't, you denounce ‘populism’."
~ historian Scott Powell

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‘Reading Boy,’ by Johann Baptist Reiter, 1861

Lesender Knabe (Reading Boy), 1861, Johann Baptist Reiter (Áustrian painter) 1813 - 1890
oil on canvas, 60 x 48 cm. Österreichische Galerie, Vienna

Historian Scott Powell writes . . .

As much as I like paintings about reading, I much prefer paintings about *thinking.* Readers depicted in art to often seem to be passively receiving inspiration or being led into some other place. I like a reader who distances himself from the book like this, with a tilt of the head and a sideways glance that speaks of consideration, even scepticism. This boy is not just "taking it in" or being swept along. He has a critical, self-activated mind.

Quote of the Day: Free Speech vs the #Surveillance State … ?

“… freedom of speech is the key issue in protecting a free society. Once we cannot communicate
freely, the game is up. Since the Internet is near to being transformed from a mechanism of
freedom into the ultimate weapon for control, a turn-key totalitarian state is almost available…”
- historian Scott Powell, “Taking a DIM View of the World — And Why Everything Depends On It”

“Hey History Guy, What the Heck is Up with Egypt?!”

My favourite online historian, Scott Powell, reckons history is desperately needed to understand how Egypt’s crisis has unfolded, and where it is headed …

China, Japan, those islands--and the coming collapse of ‘the bargain’

The Middle Kingdom Problem

LAST WEEK I POSTED pictures of riots inside China against Japanese “occupation” of some rocks in the East China Sea the Chinese call the Diaoyu Islands, and the Japanese call Senkaku Islands. We might call them just islets, because these rocks (see them above) just don’t make the grade as islands.

So why is feeling running so high in China about the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islets that smiling car dealers can hold up banners with perky slogans boasting: “We will kill every Japanese person even if it means deaths for our own”? And Chinese movie theatres can have signs outside saying, “If you find Japanese men, kill them; if you find Japanese women, rape them”?  And hundreds and hundreds of thousands of Chinese can march in streets, burn Japanese businesses and beat anyone driving Japanese cars. 

A national wave of nationalistic sentiment is directed (at the moment) at the moment, at Japan—over a bunch of unimportant rocks that are not even habitable.

Why?

There’s clearly, you would think, something more significant going on here, something more symbolic than actual.  Historian Scott Powell pointed out, in the first of our online Chinese History lectures last weekend, that whenever you see such anger over something so apparently insignificant—whether it’s one person or millions of people--there is clearly something there deeply connected to that person’s—or those people’s—core values.*

So what core values could be involved here ?  And how might understanding them help us evaluate China’s future?

Scott’s answer was to go back 200o years, to something of which commentators (who talk just about oil and gas and geopolitiks) and economists (who talk just about trade ties and GDP and China’s manufacturing base) would both be unaware, but good historians will not. 

Scott calls it the “Middle Kingdom problem.” Which is to say that for over 2000 years, Chinese considered China the natural centre of the world.  Even the universe. For 2000 years they were the power in Asia—in the world; in the universe!—to which all others paid tribute. This has a powerful effect on a nation’s psyche.

Then came a shock from which the psyche has still not recovered.  First was the growing western impingement upon China—evidence, increasing with each contact, that China was a declining world power. Then came the serious shock: in its war with Japan of 1894-1905, when Japan first annexed these islands, China was beaten. Beaten by what, for 2000 years, had been a small tributary power but which now, through its emulation of western technology, had vaulted ahead.

For China, this represented a gigantic, barbaric, 200o-year-old loss of face. Symbolically, it represented the arrival of Japan on the world stage, and the end of the illusion of China as a great regional power.

This hurt. Deeply. It still does.

And this is the deeper significance of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islets for both nations. For Japan, about to hit the economic wall, it symbolises the beginning of its own international glory days. And for China, now sinking in the economic mire, it symbolises the beginning of China’s embarrassing subordination in world affairs.

So why has this all bust out now?

Answer: Because both nations are sinking in the economic mire and so are retreating to their core values. Both of which rest, dangerously, on barbaric illusions about nationalistic pride.

The Collapse of the Bargain

A RELATED POINT, ONE becoming more relevant as economic shit hits Chinese fan, is the essential “bargain” Chinese people have so often made with their rulers. That bargain—made partly out of pragmatism, and partly out of a Confucian sense of duty—essentially allowed their rulers to be as authoritarian as they needed to be just as long as they delivered the national goals, be it national pride, military success or economic growth or prosperity. Chinese core values have never included freedom, but they do include having leaders deliver on their implicit promises.

This is why the most evil bastard in history, Mao Zedong, is still considered a hero in China—because, say Chinese, he “saved” China.  And this why the Chinese Communist Party have been so eager (so over-eager) to continue “stimulating” economic growth: because their bargain involves the state promising more wealth. So now that wealth is drying up, the ChiComs are doing everything they can to fake wealth creation—even if it means empty cities, empty savings accounts and a generation’s worth of malinvestment.

But what happens when stimulus collapses, and the “bargain” with it?  They could be as authoritarian as they liked as long as they delivered wealth/prestige/power/national pride/insert-latest-goal-here—but when delivery is not made, what then?

“The collapse of the bargain” will be interesting.

Time to enrol in a good course on Asian History—and as you’ll have read here before, I can highly recommend this one.

* Don’t believe me? Then ask yourself why so many grown men and women were chewing their nails so intensely around New Zealand last September about a few blokes throwing a pointy ball around?

When currency wars turn into the real thing, what will happen next?

What happens when economic recession depression turns into a crisis which can’t be kicked down the road—when the short-term “solutions” of bailouts, debt and money printing meet the medium-term consequences of this irresponsibility.

There will come a time when the debts can’t be paid, when paper money collapses, when real panic begins to stalk the corridors of economic impotence.

And then what happens?

There will be a flashpoint. There will be a flashpoint somewhere that will sooner or later—but eventually—transform the crisis from economic to geopolitical; a deeper, much more frightening stage of crisis. And it will happen quickly and apparently unexpectedly, as all such crises do.

Will it be set off by US govt default, where the ratio of Federal govt debt to revenue has leapt upward from 165 percent in 2008 to 262 percent this year (among developed economies, only Ireland and Spain have seen a bigger deterioration)?

Or Europe, where Germany is on the slide, stagnation is becoming contraction and governments now pretend to pay back debt and  other governments pretend to believe them?

Or China, with inventory piling up and still talking up an inflationary boom with growth figures only the Chinese government bureaucrats who write them could possibly believe.

Or Japan, the biggest nation that is deepest in the pooh, that “bug in search of a windshield” where very soon the Japanese govt could be spending almost 80% of tax revenues on just the interest on its bonds.

None of these situations is sustainable. None of them can last. And when they explode, as they will, with currency wars turning into the real thing —as it undoubtedly will when nationalism is on the rise and politicians respond to crises as they’ve always done by making them worse—the fallout could go anywhere.

Here’s the sort of place you need to look: places like the Senkaku Islands in the South China Sea, where historical enemies Japan and China have been sabre rattling for decades, and in the last few days starting to pull the sabres from their scabbards.

“China’s increasingly aggressive posture towards the South China Sea and the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea is less important in itself than as a sign of things to come,” says historian Graham Allison. And only a historical perspective on China and Japan can inform you of how, and how dangerously, increasingly common situations like this might play out.

With an economically collapsing Japan unable any longer to trade for the resources it needs, and a China increasingly willing to project its power into the world, there’s every chance the flashpoint will be in Asia. And the only good signpost to what will happen next is to understand how things happened in the past.’

Time to enrol in a good course on Asian History—and as you’ll have read here before, I can highly recommend this one.

Lions eat Black Swans

There was a period there after the crashes of 20o7 when everyone started talking about “Black Swan events.” These were random events happening out of the blue that take everyone by surprise.

It was suddenly all the rage to talk about Black Swans. According to the hype, we were now living through one of these Black Swan events . (Even ACT's Heather Roy got caught up in the hype, before one came up and nipped her in the arse.)

But guess what, people. The crash, the recession, the credit crisis … none of these were Black Swans. A Black Swan event is something truly random and unable to be foreseen.  And plenty of people did foresee the crash; they just weren’t listened to.  Then, or now.

Commentator John Mauldin reckons a more apt analogy is Lions in the Grass—dangers apparently unseen but which with sufficient foresight can be foreseen.

It is natural to the human condition to focus on the apparent dangers in front of us. That is part of our evolutionary heritage from the time when humans were first dodging lions and chasing antelopes on the African savannah. But we soon learned that if we were to survive it was not enough to walk away from and around the lions we could see. We also had to make sure we didn’t walk into a lion hidden in the grass. It is the hidden lions that can spring on us suddenly and take an arm or a leg.

While most may not spot them, a hunter or an antelope grows adept at spotting the lions hidden in the grass. * So too do those trained in more rational economics than is doled out at most universities.

As Frederic Bastiat noted, it is the skilled economist who looks for the effects that are hidden, the surprises that are unseen. It should be a habit to look at the potential second- and third-order consequences of what we can see happening before our eyes. That way, we not only avoid the lurking lions, we also turn what would hunt us and do us harm into the hunted. Sometimes, the dangers themselves can be turned into a very nice trophy indeed, if you can see and respond in time…

Everyone now knows that there are lions roaming all over Europe… but the lion that lies hidden in the
European grass is France…

France is the imminently sick man of Europe, even without Hollande at the helm—and arms and legs (ad fortunes) are going to be lost betting against it, reckons Mauldin.

Mauldin has another analogy too. One he reserves for disasters so imminent only folk with “the economic understanding that God gave a goose” could fail to see them. And he reserves this analogy for Japan.

Japan is a bug in search of a windshield – but it keeps dodging. Japan has a debt-to-GDP ratio that is approaching 230% (at a rate of increase of 8-10% a year!). The savings rate is declining rapidly and will soon go negative. At that point, the thought is, Japan will need to seek out foreign investors to buy its bonds. And who will buy a Japanese bond at 1% for ten years? If rates rise only 2%, then Japan would be spending almost 80% of tax revenues on just the interest on its bonds. I would submit that that is not a workable business model.

The question with Japan is not, “will this bug hit the windshield?” That disaster is unavoidable. The real question now is “what happens when it does?”  This (to really mix metaphors now) is the real Lion in the Grass.

Because at this point you need more than just economic nous—you need historical knowledge.

What will happen when Japan melts down—a resource-poor country in a world in which borders are being closed and resources are more difficult to buy?  Will it hunker down and accept the fate it has delivered itself. Or will it do, or try to do, what it’s done before?  Historian Scott Powell puts the question:

As its economy falters and its demographic situation becomes desperate in the 21st century, how will its bankrupt government and people react? A distinct possibility exists that Japan will return to being one of America’s [and NZ’s]greatest enemies.

These are questions that can only be answered with knowledge of what’s gone before. Which is why I’d encourage you to look at signing up to Scott Powell’s online Japanese History course—for which Mauldin’s newsletter quoted above is assigned reading.

* * * * 

* Can you see the “hidden lion” in the photograph above? Give up?  Then head to John Mauldin’s newsletter for the answer.

Asian History By Induction

It’s impossible to contemplate the future without knowing what happened in the past. In the twenty-first century—said to be the coming Asian Century—it’s more important than even before to understand what made Asia today, and thus where it might go.

I’ve mentioned before that I’ve found one of the most enjoyable and productive ways to learn history is with Scott Powell’s online history courses, using a unique method for teaching history he calls History By Induction. It works.

And you’re in luck, because his new online Asian History course starts this weekend with a free introductory lecture on Japanese history.

So what have you got lose ?

Especially when Chairman Mao warns you against it!

Christopher Columbus, by Carl von Piloty

Piloty depicts Columbus at the very moment of discovery – a brief fragment of time before this he was all but defeated, his calculations checked and rechecked but his prize still tantalisingly out of reach, and his reputation all but shattered. But at this very instant the cry of discovery is heard: the voyage’s goal is reached, and the continent of America is claimed.  As historian Scott Powell says,

“The themes of the life of Christopher Columbus are timeless.  Among them are independence, vision, courage, dedication, perseverance.  All are captured in the excellent painting by German master historical painter Carl von Piloty in his painting simply entitled ‘Christopher Columbus’.”

But obviously qualities like independence, vision, courage, dedication and perseverance can’t just be picked off the canvas like pins from a pin cushion.  Read Scott Powell’s post to see how – and how well – Piloty has integrated these into his canvas.

The Death of Socrates – Jacques Louis David

‘The Death of Socrates,’ by Jacques Louis David – just one of hundreds of examples of great art used by historian Scott Powell in his ‘History Through Art’ programme.

Learn to see history in a new way by combining  the abstract lessons of history with the visual power of art!

Head here to the ‘History Through Art’ website to learn more about the programme, and to sign up.  It’s easy, it’s fun, and you can do it from home.  The next programme starts September 2nd.

Throw out your preconceptions about history as a dry, academic subject, and embrace a world of inspirational insights and values.

There’s no better way to learn history.

From Washington to Bush

My favourite online historian is just starting out to rank all the past US Presidents.  I look forward to his results, particularly with how he deals with Lincoln.

For myself, I’m pretty clear on which entity was the very worst US President – although another very strong contender has just appeared on the horizon…

'Bonaparte before the Sphinx' - Jean-Leon Gerome

"In 1798, Napoleon Bonaparte changed history.  In 1868, Jean-Leon Gerome showed us why."

What does historian Scott Powell mean by that comment above?  Find out here, in a thorough and entertaining historical analysis.

    Whatever may be said morally about Napoleon, there can be no question ... that he commands our attention. All of subsequent world history has been irrevocably conditioned by his presence in the time line, and it is in this regard that those of us who wish to change the world for the better should examine him.
    What was it about Napoleon that was exceptional, not mundane? What made him ... a world-changer, as opposed to a mere cipher of history? The root of the answer is provided in the deceptively simple painting: Bonaparte before the Sphinx...

Read on here for the answers to these and other questions.  (And just by the way, it's still not too late to sign up for Scott's Ancient-History-by-correspondence course.  Sign up now before the NZ dollar tanks completely.)

America is a ...

Historian Scott Powell makes a worthwhile point:

In my view, anyone that uses the term “democracy” to describe America is so ignorant as to be criminally negligent of history.

Discuss.

History for home-schoolers

You've heard me talk before about Scott Powell's history course for adults.  Now here's some news for home-schoolers wanting a rational history course for their students.  Registration for historian Scott Powell's two courses on American History and Ancient History for home-schoolers are just about to open, and he promises incredible savings for home-schoolers who enrol their children in American history with HistoryAtOurHouse when registration opens this Friday, June 27th!  Here at Scott's HistoryAtOurHouse blog are details about the upcoming registration special for new clients. 

Anyone for a drive across Israel?

When preparing his lecture on Israel for our online history course on The Islamist Entanglement, historian Scott Powell discovered an apt way in which to demonstrate just how small Israel is. For a New Zealand audience, it's the size below -- the length of a drive from Dunedin to the Wild Food Festival in Hokitika -- the size of a country that could be overrun in just a few hours by anyone determined enough to 'wipe it off the map.' No wonder it's been tried --and repelled -- so often.


The image comes from the site IRIS.ORG.IL, which also shows the size of Israel in comparison to just a portion of the Arab world.

As Scott wryly says, "No wonder the Arab world has so much trouble accommodating the Palestinian refugees. Where would they all fit?"

NB: If you've missed the nine preceding lectures in Scott's Islamist Entanglement course, then it's not too late to sign up and listen to all the lectures so far at the online archive, and then get the concluding lecture live and online next week.

And if you'd like to sign up for Scott's next history course before it starts -- and I'd urge all of you to give it serious consideration -- he's kicking off his First History for Adults™ (Part 4) on Ancient History shortly. (No previous knowledge of history is required, just some basic native intelligence.)

Drunk History

It's not the drinking, it's how we're drinking ... for your delectation to that end, Derek Waters presents 'Drunk History.'  Frankly, if it's history you want, then you might find Scott Powell more accurate -- but Waters is a far more entertaining drunk.

Truth from unlikely places

I bet you'll never guess either the philosopher whose wisdom appears in the following two quotes, or even his country of origin -- and I'm damn sure you won't pick those for whom he was a mentor.

Said our man:

“It is philosophy that makes man understandable to man, explains human nobility, and shows man the proper road. The first defect appearing in any nation that is headed toward decline is in the philosophic spirit. After that deficiencies spread into the other sciences, arts, and associations.”

Why does philosophy have such power? Explains the author:

“Philosophy is the escape from the narrow sensations of animality into the wide arena of human feelings…In general, it is man’s becoming man and living the life of sacred rationality. Its aim is human perfection in reason, mind, soul, and way of life….It is the foremost cause of the production of knowledge, the creation of sciences, the invention of industries, and the initiation of the crafts.” (emphasis added)

Isn't that wonderful?  And what's more, it's true.

So do you want a clue?  Here's one: our man underwent a philosophical change almost as profound as John Stuart Mill's collapse from eloquent advocate of laissez faire to scum-socking apologist of socialism (though for different reasons -- this philosopher was unlikely to have been pussy-whipped as Mill was).

Give up?  Then for your answer, head over to the history blog of Scott Powell, who uncovered these amazing lines.  As the Resident Egoist says, "Prepare to be shocked."

Top ten titles in American history

Historian Scott Powell, who regular readers will recognise as one of the good guys, wants to help you improve your library.  To that end he's just started a series describing the essential history books your library should have: "four weekly top 10s in American, European, Middle Eastern, and Ancient history."

Sign up now (it's free) to get his first post listing the top ten books in American history you need to have in your library. 

P.S. Scott's course on Ancient History starts later this year as part of his First History for Adults programme.  Sign up with a friend and you can save $50!