Ebook subscription models? Book It

Big news bubbling about Amazon's moves for Christmas, including the new Kindle Fire tablet and possible $99 Kindles, as well as a Touch Kindle. I'd never own a touch screen of any kind because I don't like greasy smears on my screen, but others like them. And I am not a techie by any means, I just want what works at a low price and doesn't give me headaches. IreaderReview is one of my favorite places to follow such Kindle developments.

But for readers and writers, the real issue is: What does this mean for ebooks? I've been predicting for about a year that Amazon will soon be bundling books into a "Netflix" model, where you get all the books you can eat for one monthly fee. Amazon already has the model in place, and they just announced new additions to its Prime offering. It's never really been a device war in the long term--iPad and Kindle never were direct competitors for the ereading audience. Just ask any author who has access to their sales numbers (and don't believe what you hear from publishing companies, who are still desperately trying to spin their Apple agency pricing as a win). People reading on iPads are using the Kindle or Nook apps. Apple maybe has 2 percent of the book market. Probably less.

The cheap Kindle will pretty much lock up Amazon's crown as the content king. At least for five years, which is eons in the technological era. Look how many different devices have come out in just the last three years. Yet Amazon continues to be the content king, with at least 70 percent of the ebook market. (Again, if you look at publisher data, publishers will claim BN has about 27 percent of the market, but their data is incredibly skewed--don't forget these two are joined at the hip through the physical bookstores.) And Amazon is rapidly expanding its world markets.

BN's problem is the weight of those physical bookstores. It's difficult to promote the Nook while still paying lip service to paper books and investing resources in managing the bookstores where books are an ever-lower percentage of their floor space.  Kobo will be lucky to survive another year. Google is still freighted with its illegally scanned books, plus they don't really have a device out there. Sony will ride the Pottermore wave until those buyers realize they really don't have a very good bookstore selection after Harry Potter.

I don't know the pricing structure of the Prime books model. I only know it's coming. It's not only inevitable, I would be shocked if it didn't happen by next summer. Amazon has already been sending out feelers to publishers, and the Kindle library lending is a big step in mainstreaming ebooks. We still don't know how authors will be paid--presumably enough to keep writing, making less per book on a higher volume of sales. And Prime is a natural fit for rolling in advertising which means even lower prices for devices and ebooks.

Is it a win for everyone? It certainly is for Amazon. And I signed a book deal with Amazon, which is where I am putting my chips. What's funny is that BN was uniquely positioned to become a publisher a decade ago, and even put out a few books under its own imprint. And traditional  publishers never built ebook stores where they could control their own catalog and peddle their own subscriptions. Probably it was the shortsightedness of having to show investors a nice return every three months.

Bottom line looks like: cheaper, faster, more. I don't know what the future holds, but I'm holding on for one hell of a wild ride!
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Ebook subscription models

Angry Robot, a UK sci-fi press, is doing what Big Six publishers should have done five years ago. It's launched a discounted subscription model for ebooks. Over 12 months, you get 24 books at a savings of more than a dollar per title. That's not knocking it out of the park, but it's a bargain for loyal customers, and Angry Robot also provides an out in case people want to cancel (customers pay full price for any book they downloaded up to the point of cancellation). It not only seems workable, it is smart business and I expect it to proliferate.

In fact, last year I predicted Amazon would be going to a subscription option for Kindle books, mirroring its Prime program for movie downloads. The kicker will be how many downloads you get--if it's only one book at a time, it will be like a Netflix model, where maybe you check out one premium book while other, less-popular titles are freely available at any time. No word yet on how authors get paid under the discounted model, but I'd assume their percentage would be the same (with the publisher making the case that they will sell more books at the lower prices). I'll be digging more into this in my next Indie Reader column.
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Indie Flip Side: The Fallacy of "Just Writing"

(Note: This is NOT a judgment of someone else's decisions, or a declaration that a traditional publishing deal is "wrong," or that I think anyone makes a "mistake" by accepting a traditional publishing deal. This is simply a philosophical exploration of consequences of paths you choose in your life, and what you want. If a publishing deal gives you what you want, you absolutely, positively should take it.


I refer to Amanda Hocking for the sole reason that she is the current symbolic lightning rod. Two years ago, it would have been Boyd Morrison. Last year, J.A. Konrath, and in two months it will probably be John Locke. While "Scott slams Amanda" would get me more blog hits, I'd rather take the post--and the entire blog--down than suggest such a thing.


I can't make those choices for you or anyone else, only myself. And I won't even know until the next one is offered, and then I will only know it for that one deal at that time for me, not all deals for anyone at any other time. That is the point of what follows. I thought it was clear but I apparently failed to communicate it well)

The discussion (and it is now a discussion, not an "argument" or a "debate") on whether writers should choose the indie or the traditional path, or both, usually focuses on money alone. That's odd, because money is usually one of the least valuable considerations when you are choosing how to spend your life. Clearly time is the most valuable resource, because it's non-renewable and finite, unlike money.

A successful writer friend recently gave me a "hot tip" on an emerging book sector--it was all the rage at an international book fair, and now publishers have the stats to back it up. Stats mean sales people can buy in, which means editors can spend money, and writers can get book deals, and everybody's happy. Right? He was trying to get me in on it as an act of generosity, with connections in place and everything. And I thought about it, because that siren song of "Your name on a REAL BOOK" is still pretty melodic. I could do it. I have an agent and enough success and this market is new enough that my old genre sales numbers wouldn't matter.

The next morning I woke up and thought, "No way in hell." Think of the drama. First off I'd have to explain it all to my agent, come up with an outline and sample chapters, wait to see if it sold, then work with editors and PR department and then wait up to a year for anything to happen, all the while getting approvals and requests for revisions. Dozens and probably hundreds of emails and phone calls. Just thinking about it exhausts me, when my biggest worry today is whether I should plant beans or plant spinach.

When compared to just typing and publishing as I do now, a big manufacturing process is not very appealing. That's not to say a good editor can't greatly improve a book. But you know what? I am already an editor. I edit other people's books, and I am probably better at it than some who are doing it on salary, because I'm a writer and not just a reader. That's not ego, that's 15 years of experience.

I have to laugh every time someone quotes Amanda Hocking saying she took her deal so she could "just write." I saw on a blog that her assistant had turned down a request by the blog for an interview. So, aside from the layer she's now installed from her former real life when she dealt with the book bloggers who were important to her success, she is managing an assistant, as well as the "lawyers, accountants, and financial advisors" that success brought. And an agent, and probably several agents if you count film and foreign rights, and Hollywood people for the movie versions. And at least one editor, until those foreign rights sell, and then there are multiple editors.

And despite the oohs and ahs over a $2 mil contract, that is not a lot for four books/English world rights when the superstars earn $10 mil per book. By industry standard definitions, she is an upper midlist writer, which means she will still have to do a lot of promo work, which means dealing with a PR department--and book signings, events, travel, and she will be working harder than ever to run a business, because now it's not as simple as watching it dump into her bank account now. She is managing a staff, or perhaps a better word for it is an "empire." And even if she continues self-publishing on the side, she can't remove those layers and obligations and interruptions.

Before you light the torches and storm the castle, please note I am in no way demeaning, second-guessing, or wishing Amanda Hocking ill--we have traded emails in the past and in her social media presence she is clearly sweet and compassionate, and I wish her all continued success and happiness and nothing less than utter joy. But I suspect her life just got more complicated than ever and the one thing she can no longer do is "just write." Perhaps there's a reason J.K. Rowling and Stephenie Meyer went dark.

People overlook the value of quality of life and how time is spent. I can't speak for anyone else, but for me, I realize lots of money would NOT make my life "better." Just having to buy the next used car fills me with fear--choices! My wife and I tried to picture ourselves in the perfect vehicles for us, and we agreed--for me, it's the rusty 1986 Isuzu pickup I already own. It's my dream car, I love driving it, I like my self-image when I am driving it (a working-class hero), and it's useful. I am incredibly happy when I stop by the landfill to salvage firewood or get a load of manure from the neighbor's pasture.

A boatload of cash would just create more burdens and deplete the one finite resource that is most valuable--time. Another friend of mine is struggling with this same situation--whether to go corporate and what the gain would be, when he's already living the life of his dreams.I'm already burdened by the money I do have, because it begets desire. I am going to find the cheapest potatoes in town, buy a truckload, and drive it to our local Hunger Coalition. I trust God will fill that hole back up in my bank account, because She's done it over and over. I don't say that to brag about how humble I am, but from the acute awareness that all the goodness that comes to me is an obligation to return goodness to the world.

There's no way a big fat book deal would improve my life. I don't care how much money it is. It would be a step backward. Because I am already doing everything I want on my own terms, and that is all I ever wanted. Going that route would be someone else's (many someones) routes. I'd go from being a business owner to a temp contract employee.

That's not to say I'd never take a corporate deal. The point is, I don't need to. Just the offer from my friend made me anxious and unhappy, because it sounded like the sort of opportunity I should leap at, and that I should rush before the crowd gets there.

But, guess what? I am quite happy outside the crowd. And I've had my best success, luck, and happiness following my own path. That doesn't mean I am isolated, because without you, my writing and my dream becomes rather meaningless. But we're connected precisely because I am outside the crowd, not because I'm in it.

I am already doing everything I wanted in my writing career--writing stories for a living. My life wouldn't be improved by a shinier car or a third house or a bass boat. While there is a "next" to shoot for, there's not a "better" or a "next level." When you're living a dream, why leave it for someone else's dream?

If your dream is $2 million, there are tons of millions out there. If you want to spend more time on the phone with strangers talking about money, that is possible, too. I just hope each of you are happy. It's the hardest thing in the world to be, and a thing writers often seem least capable of achieving.

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How NY is Fueling Its Own Demise

I don't like to talk sales numbers, because it inevitably sounds like whining or bragging, but since Jan. 4, I have sold more books than Snooki, according to this article.

I know the major publishing industry is desperate and that's part of the reason they have been tossing real writers overboard while others are fleeing like rats from a burning ship. Every "sure bet" deal for Snooki or George Bush or Sarah Palin or Madonna sends 100 real writers to the soup kitchen.What's stunning is how New York is so actively and willfully tossing gasoline on the flames of its immolation. By failing to recognize the tastes of readers or developing the literary talents of tomorrow while engaging in a wholesale denial of what people want to pay and how they want their books delivered, their ship will soon be a smoking cinder slipping beneath the waves.

Not coincidentally at all, those writers look for their audience elsewhere, and the largest, hungriest audience in the world is sitting next to their Kindles as we speak. The Kindle/Nook phenomenon is not just a tech craze or a groovy new consumption model. It's a release valve for the pent-up desires of so many people craving a wealth and diversity of reading material. Your average public book display will have 20 copies of the same 20 books all across America. Those books are the top 20 on the bestseller lists for obvious reasons.

People now have a choice. Nearly a million choices, really. And it's only the beginning.
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Divergence

The publishing world has two paths right now. The first is tradition, with PW reporting ebook growth slowed in October (but overall sales still grew) and Huffington Post lamenting the closing of bookstores.

Then there's the path taken by J.A. Konrath and an accelerating number of authors--the indie way. Or self-publishing. Or vanity press. Whatever.

Joe loves to delve into numbers, and rightly so, given his success and his platform that feeds on being a center of the indie world. It's a smart business, and he's interested, and he's always gone the extra mile to be out front on promotion and the future. And, rightfully, bunches of successful authors chime in with their own numbers. So both paths look a little skewed--New York is shrinking and indie is growing, suggests these two groups of data.

I have no doubt indie is growing, but when I posted on Joe's blog, I didn't see anybody in there saying "I only sold 12 copies that month." But there are hundreds of thousands of authors who sold only that many or less. I know, because I have rankings all over the map for my 18 or so books. I know roughly how many sales will get you at a certain rank, and it's pretty easy to get "locked in" at a certain level. Success breeds success, and not selling makes it harder to sell.

So, really, there's not enough evidence to make a comprehensive analysis, and I don't think the data will ever exist, because few indies will report their numbers, most don't use ISBNs to track sales, and PW will always get a very myopic and limited view of the market. It's simple enough to look at the Kindle bestseller list, which is, for all intents and purposes, the overall e-book bestseller list (though the UK Kindle market is expanding). Bestsellers still sell the best, and that hasn't changed.

What has changed, and what affects me happily, is that books stay in print and available and continue to reach new readers. I love expanding--getting emails, blogging, and even reading my one-star reviews. I say the customer is always right and I stand by it, even when the customer doesn't like my product.

But I've learned that people often take personal truth as a universal truth. For Joe and many authors, it's the best of times and the future looks bright. For an editor who just lost a publishing job, the future looks gray. But 99.9 percent of the readers don't care which view is right.

They want content how and when they want it, at a price they are willing to pay. That's pretty much the X factor to which all surrounding conditions respond. It's not indie success or publishing-industry failure shaping the landscape. Readers are tugging this tide. And it's absolutely cool.

Digital Drive-In flirts with Speed Dating with the Dead

Free multi-author sampler download Just In Time For The Holidays
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